The Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS) has forecast rainfall across dozens of counties between October 20 and 26, urging residents to remain alert as the October–December short rains season gathers momentum.
The seven-day forecast covers Nairobi, Nyanza, Western Kenya, the Central Highlands, the Rift Valley, the Coast and parts of northern and eastern Kenya. However, reports differ on the total number of counties expected to receive rainfall, with The Star citing 46 counties and Capital FM reporting 44.
Counties listed in the forecast include Nairobi, Kisumu, Migori, Kisii, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Nakuru, Meru, Kiambu, Mombasa, Kilifi, Garissa and Mandera.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible in parts of Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Laikipia, Samburu, Wajir and Marsabit, according to the forecast.
The weather outlook also highlights significant temperature variations across the country. Daytime temperatures are expected to exceed 35°C in parts of Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana.
Meanwhile, nighttime temperatures could fall below 10°C in parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Nakuru and Kajiado, highlighting the contrasting weather conditions expected in different regions.
The Kenya Meteorological Service has identified several climate systems, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, as factors influencing the timing, duration and intensity of rainfall during the October–December season. Meteorologists are also monitoring the potential influence of a strengthening El Niño on weather patterns across East Africa.
In Nyeri County, KMS County Director Peter Wambugu told the Kenya News Agency that the area was expected to begin experiencing the first showers towards the end of the week, with rainfall intensity projected to increase the following week.
“We highly predict that Nyeri is among the counties that will start experiencing the first showers of the October-November–December rains towards the end of this week,” Wambugu said.
The anticipated rainfall could bring relief to farmers and communities that depend on rain-fed agriculture. However, heavy downpours may also increase the risk of flooding, soil erosion, damage to roads and property, and displacement in vulnerable areas.
Poor drainage systems and the disposal of waste in waterways could worsen flooding, particularly in urban settlements. Residents living near rivers and in flood-prone areas have therefore been urged to monitor official weather updates and follow instructions issued by local authorities.
Motorists and pedestrians are advised to avoid crossing flooded roads, bridges and rivers, while farmers are encouraged to consult agricultural extension officers for guidance on planting schedules based on local rainfall conditions.
The Kenya Meteorological Service has cautioned that rainfall patterns may vary significantly within individual counties. Residents should therefore rely on updated, location-specific forecasts rather than assume that every part of a listed county will experience rain.
As the short rains season progresses, authorities are urging Kenyans to remain vigilant and take appropriate precautions to protect lives, property and livelihoods.
